2010 Super Bowl Futures
One of the things I like to do when betting on football is to speculate. For some, speculating means taking a team with high odds against winning the Super Bowl and throwing down money to them. For example, the Detroit Lions (100-1 shot at winning the Super Bowl in 2010) would be the way some people would speculate, as they currently have the longest odds of winning. To me, that is like throwing away my money. I would gather more benefit from burning the money, as it would at least generate warmth for a split second. When speculating on futures, I like to handicap the field myself to ensure I am getting value out of my bet, as well as to be realistic in a profitable outcome, and here is how I do it.
Eliminate the Long Shots
First step is to eliminate the teams I feel do not have a chance. I do all of this without looking at the odds, as I want to handicap the field myself. In scanning the field, I eliminate the teams who I do not feel have a prayer, which consists of the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, and the St. Louis Rams. These are teams that I do not feel have the slightest bit of a chance to even discuss Super Bowl in 2010.
Accumulate a List of Top Tier Contenders
The next thing I do is accumulate a short list of contenders for the Super Bowl. I eliminated five teams from consideration, so I will limit the top tier list to five as well. The short list of Super Bowl contenders is as follows: Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and the NY Giants. These are the teams that I expect to be talking not only post season, but also Super Bowl in 2010.
List of Second Tier Contenders
Next up is my second tier contenders. These are teams that can talk post season, but not Super Bowl in my opinion. Again, sticking to five teams – Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, and Arizona Cardinals.
Putting it All Together
I have separated my list into three groups – those eliminated from Super Bowl speculation, those highly likely to win the Super Bowl, and those teams who may be inclined to make the Super Bowl. Minus the teams eliminated from consideration, I assign football betting odds to each team using a base 100%, as opposed to the 110%-125% the Vegas lines makers use. I include any team not listed, but not eliminated in a group called “the field,” just to consider other teams in the event they over-perform. Once I have established my personal line, I look for value in the Vegas Line and begin speculating on Super Bowl futures.